The Congressional Budget Office just released a new analysis of the Senate's tax bill. The CBO examined the combined effect of changes in tax law with reductions in federal spending, like changes in "Medicaid, cost-sharing reduction payments, the Basic Health program, and Medicare."
The agency subtracted changes in federal spending for different income groups from the change in federal revenues allocated to each group. Essentially, the analysis looked at how much effect increased taxes from a group and decreased spending on the same group had on overall deficit estimates.
The groups hit hardest — the ones providing a reduction to federal deficits — are the poorest .
According to the estimates, anyone making less than $30,000 a year would feel the pinch starting in 2019, with the greatest "savings" to the government (again, a combination of either increases in payments or decreases in money spent on a group in services) coming from those who make less than $10,000 a year.
By 2020, everyone making $40,000 or less a year would also be contributing to lowering the deficit by paying more in taxes and/or receiving less in services, creating a net savings for the federal government. In that year, the groups making between $10,000 and $20,000 and between $20,000 and $30,000 would each be contributing double what the under-$10,000 group did in savings.
By 2027, everyone making less than $75,000 would provide a net savings to the government, whether through higher taxes, lower amounts spent on services, or both.
Congressional Budget Office Reconciliation Recommendations of the Senate Committee on Finance
Positive numbers in the table mean savings to the government and a loss to the people in a group. Negative numbers mean a loss to the government or a net gain for those in the group.
The groups getting the most are those making between $100,000 and $500,000. Groups above that will get less in total, but there will also be fewer in each group, so their average benefit could be (and likely will be) significantly higher.
Just in case you thought the tax bill was designed to help everyone. (Here's the full table from the CBO report below.